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Planning for the unforeseeable One of the toughest jobs a manager has to face is how to predict the future of his or her business. No matter how secure your operational context may seem, or how much market data you accumulate or how accurate your analyses regarding coming trends, you can be sure that the unforeseen will at some point have an impact on your plans. That’s why contingency planning is key to the long-term success of any enterprise. In today’s world, the economies of nations interface and overlap, and causes and effects are felt far beyond the country of their origin. In Egypt, we can and must be prepared to absorb and overcome the obstacles arising in our path to economic stability. When it comes to business, Egypt is a country where the shortest distance between two points is seldom a straight line. We know all about obstacles and interference, but we also know about flexibility and improvisation, and this knowledge should serve us well as we plan for the future. Contingencies, those unforeseen events that upset our best-laid plans, should be considered as a feature of our business landscape, especially during these turbulent times. How do we prepare for the unexpected? The answers include planning long term, laying strong and diverse foundations for growth, and creating alliances and partnerships that can weather the storm. It’s worth noting, with regard to the business community, that just as our commitments to our international partners remain strong, their commitments to Egypt also stand firm. And this is a source of encouragement, not to mention a sign of the depth of our mutual involvement. The fact is that Egypt’s emerging economy relies heavily on foreign direct investment (FDI), along with private sector advancement and government investment and development efforts. These are the three essential elements in Egypt’s equation for growth. Our population of nearly 70 million people is in need of social infrastructure, schools, hospitals and housing. At the same time, hundreds of thousands of young Egyptians enter the job market annually: they not only need jobs, but in many cases, training. If indeed, as seems likely, Egypt suffers from hesitation regarding new and deeper investment, we have no choice but to continue to work with our partners. Careful allocation of existing international funding will help. At the same time, Egyptian businessmen would be wise to seek the most productive (i.e. least speculative) ways of investing in the future. Meanwhile, we can polish production mechanisms, upgrade skills and strengthen our organizations from within. To raise the standard of living of a nation overall, you need a dynamic, layered, open economy. That’s a given. Expanding production bases, increasing exports and optimizing trade agreements – this is how we will provide jobs and ensure stability in our country. Reliance on one or two sectors makes us too vulnerable to contingency. The tourism sector under the current world conditions is a case in point. The demise of the high-end real-estate boom is another. A more diverse industrial base would go a lot further to reaching Egypt’s goals. It’s worth remembering that one of those goals is regional peace: we’ve worked hard for many years knowing that our best efforts will always fall short in its absence. Egypt’s role as regional stabilizer counts more than ever in this time of unforeseen, indeed unthinkable, events. However they unfold, we have no choice but to pay close attention and most importantly, to keep our eyes fixed firmly on the demands of our economic future.
Mohamed L. Mansour |
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